2016年06月四级第2套长篇阅读匹配原文翻译及答案

A) For many years I have studied global agricultural, population, environmental and economic trends and their interactions. The combined effects of those trends and the political tensions they generate point to the breakdown of governments and societies. Yet I, too, have resisted the idea that food shortages could bring down not only individual governments but also our global civilization.

多年来，我研究了全球农业、人口、环境和经济趋势及其相互作用。这些趋势的综合效应以及它们引发的政治紧张局势表明政府和社会的崩溃。然而，我也曾抵制过这样一种观点：粮食短缺不仅可能推翻个别政府，还可能推翻我们的全球文明。

B) I can no longer ignore that risk. Our continuing failure to deal with the environmental declines that are undermining the world food economy forces me to conclude that such a collapse is possible.

我不能再忽视这一风险。我们持续未能处理那些正在破坏世界粮食经济的环境恶化，这迫使我得出结论：这样的崩溃是可能的。

C) As demand for food rises faster than supplies are growing, the resulting food-price inflation puts severe stress on the governments of many countries. Unable to buy grain or grow their own, hungry people take to the streets. Indeed, even before the steep climb in grain prices in 2008, the number of failing states was expanding. If the food situation continues to worsen, entire nations will break down at an ever increasing rate. In the 20th century the main threat to international security was superpower conflict; today it is failing states.

随着粮食需求增长快于供应增长，由此产生的粮食价格通胀给许多国家政府带来严重压力。无法购买或种植粮食的饥饿人群走上街头。事实上，早在2008年粮食价格急剧攀升之前，失败国家的数量就在扩大。如果粮食形势继续恶化，整个国家将以日益加快的速度崩溃。20世纪，国际安全的主要威胁是超级大国冲突；今天则是失败国家。

D) States fail when national governments can no longer provide personal security, food security and basic social services such as education and health care. When governments lose their control on power, law and order begin to disintegrate. After a point, countries can become so dangerous that food relief workers are no longer safe and their programs are halted. Failing states are of international concern because they are a source of terrorists, drugs, weapons and refugees (难民), threatening political stability everywhere.

当国家政府无法再提供个人安全、粮食安全和基本社会服务如教育和医疗时，国家就会失败。当政府失去对权力的控制时，法律和秩序开始瓦解。到一定程度，国家可能变得如此危险，以至于粮食救援人员不再安全，他们的项目也被停止。失败国家引起国际关注，因为它们是恐怖分子、毒品、武器和难民（难民）的源头，威胁着各地的政治稳定。

E) The surge in world grain prices in 2007 and 2008—and the threat they pose to food security——has a different, more troubling quality than the increases of the past. During the second half of the 20th century, grain prices rose dramatically several times. In 1972, for instance, the Soviets, recognizing their poor harvest early, quietly cornered the world wheat market. As a result, wheat prices elsewhere more than doubled, pulling rice and corn prices up with them. But this and other price shocks were event-driven——drought in the Soviet Union, crop-shrinking heat in the U.S. Corn Belt. And the rises were short-lived: prices typically returned to normal with the next harvest.

2007年和2008年世界粮食价格的飙升——以及它们对粮食安全构成的威胁——具有与过去上涨不同的、更令人不安的性质。20世纪下半叶，粮食价格曾多次急剧上涨。例如，在1972年，苏联人早早认识到歉收，悄悄垄断了世界小麦市场。结果，其他地方的小麦价格翻了一倍多，带动了大米和玉米价格上涨。但这次和其他价格冲击是事件驱动的——苏联的干旱、美国玉米带的作物减产热浪。而且上涨是短暂的：价格通常随着下一次收获而恢复正常。

F) In contrast, the recent surge in world grain prices is trend-driven, making it unlikely to reverse without a reversal in the trends themselves. On the demand side, those trends include the ongoing addition of more than 70 million people a year, a growing number of people wanting to move up the food chain to consume highly grain-intensive meat products, and the massive diversion (转向) of U.S. grain to the production of bio-fuel.

相比之下，近期世界粮食价格的飙升是趋势驱动的，使得除非趋势本身逆转，否则价格不太可能回落。在需求方面，这些趋势包括每年持续增加7000多万人，越来越多的人希望升级食物链以消费高度谷物密集的肉类产品，以及美国谷物大规模转向生产生物燃料。

G) As incomes rise among low-income consumers, the potential for further grain consumption is huge. But that potential pales beside the never-ending demand for crop-based fuels. A fourth of this year's U.S. grain harvest will go to fuel cars.

随着低收入消费者收入的增加，进一步粮食消费的潜力巨大。但与作物燃料无尽的需求相比，这种潜力显得微不足道。今年美国粮食收成的四分之一将用于为汽车提供燃料。

H) What about supply? The three environmental trends——the shortage of fresh water, the loss of topsoil and the rising temperatures——are making it increasingly hard to expand the world's grain supply fast enough to keep up with demand. Of all those trends, however, the spread of water shortages poses the most immediate threat. The biggest challenge here is irrigation, which consumes 70% of the world's fresh water. Millions of irrigation wells in many countries are now pumping water out of underground sources faster than rainfall can refill them. The result is falling water tables (地下水位) in countries with half the world's people, including the three big grain producers——China, India and the U.S.

供应方面呢？三个环境趋势——淡水短缺、表土流失和气温上升——使得快速扩大世界粮食供应以跟上需求变得越来越困难。然而，在所有这些趋势中，水资源短缺的蔓延构成了最直接的威胁。这里最大的挑战是灌溉，它消耗了全球70%的淡水。许多国家的数百万灌溉井现在从地下水源抽水的速度快于降雨补给的速度。结果，在拥有世界一半人口的国家，包括三个主要粮食生产国——中国、印度和美国，地下水位（地下水位）正在下降。

I) As water tables have fallen and irrigation wells have gone dry, China's wheat crop, the world's largest, has declined by 8% since it peaked at 123 million tons in 1997. But water shortages are even more worrying in India. Millions of irrigation wells have significantly lowered water tables in almost every state.

随着地下水位下降和灌溉井干涸，中国的小麦产量——世界上最大的——自1997年达到1.23亿吨的峰值以来，已经下降了8%。但水资源短缺在印度更令人担忧。数百万灌溉井几乎在每个邦都显著降低了地下水位。

J) As the world's food security falls to pieces, individual countries acting in their own self-interest are actually worsening the troubles of many. The trend began in 2007, when leading wheat-exporting countries such as Russia and Argentina limited or banned their exports, in hopes of increasing local food supplies and thereby bringing down domestic food prices. Vietnam banned its exports for several months for the same reason. Such moves may eliminate the fears of those living in the exporting countries, but they are creating panic in importing countries that must rely on what is then left for export.

随着世界粮食安全分崩离析，个别国家出于自身利益行事，实际上加剧了许多国家的困境。这一趋势始于2007年，当时主要的小麦出口国如俄罗斯和阿根廷限制或禁止出口，希望增加当地粮食供应，从而降低国内粮食价格。越南出于同样原因禁止出口数月。这些举措可能消除了出口国居民的恐惧，但它们在进口国中引发了恐慌，这些进口国必须依赖剩余用于出口的粮食。

K) In response to those restrictions, grain-importing countries are trying to nail down long-term trade agreements that would lock up future grain supplies. Food-import anxiety is even leading to new efforts by food-importing countries to buy or lease farmland in other countries. In spite of such temporary measures, soaring food prices and spreading hunger in many other countries are beginning to break down the social order.

作为对这些限制的回应，粮食进口国正试图敲定长期贸易协议，以锁定未来的粮食供应。粮食进口焦虑甚至导致粮食进口国努力购买或租赁其他国家的农田。尽管有这些临时措施，许多其他国家飞涨的粮食价格和蔓延的饥饿正开始破坏社会秩序。

L) Since the current world food shortage is trend-driven, the environmental trends that cause it must be reversed. We must cut carbon emissions by 80% from their 2006 levels by 2020, stabilize the world's population at eight billion by 2040, completely remove poverty, and restore forests and soils. There is nothing new about the four objectives. Indeed, we have made substantial progress in some parts of the world on at least one of these——the distribution of family-planning services and the associated shift to smaller families.

由于当前的世界粮食短缺是趋势驱动的，导致它的环境趋势必须逆转。我们必须到2020年将碳排放量比2006年水平减少80%，到2040年将世界人口稳定在80亿，彻底消除贫困，并恢复森林和土壤。这四个目标并不新鲜。事实上，我们在世界一些地区至少在一个目标上取得了实质性进展——计划生育服务的分配以及随之向小家庭的转变。

M) For many in the development community, the four objectives were seen as positive, promoting development as long as they did not cost too much. Others saw them as politically correct and morally appropriate. Now a third and far more significant motivation presents itself: meeting these goals may be necessary to prevent the collapse of our civilization. Yet the cost we project for saving civilization would amount to less than $200 billion a year, 1/6 of current global military spending. In effect, our plan is the new security budget.

对于发展社区的许多人来说，这四个目标被视为积极的，只要成本不过高，就能促进发展。其他人则认为它们在政治上正确且道德上合适。现在，第三个更为重要的动机出现了：实现这些目标对于防止我们的文明崩溃可能是必要的。然而，我们预计拯救文明的代价每年将少于2000亿美元，是当前全球军费开支的六分之一。实际上，我们的计划是新的安全预算。