2023年12月四级第1套长篇阅读匹配原文翻译及答案

A) Earlier this year, scientists warned that one in six animal species could go extinct (灭绝的) due to climate change. Could the same thing happen to our crops and other foodstuffs too?

今年早些时候，科学家警告说，由于气候变化，六分之一的动物物种可能灭绝。同样的事情会不会发生在我们的农作物和其他食物上呢？

B) It's clear that farmers in many parts of the world are going to find things harder in the coming decades. Last week, BBC Future explored one scientist's efforts to help crops cope with the increased probability of droughts. By using the genes from resurrection (复活) plants, Jill Farrant of the University of Cape Town is exploring whether she can design crops to survive for much longer periods without water.

很明显，世界各地的农民在未来几十年会面临更多困难。上周，BBC Future探索了一位科学家帮助作物应对干旱概率增加的努力。通过使用复活植物的基因，开普敦大学的吉尔·法兰特正在探索她是否能设计出能在更长时间内无水生存的作物。

C) But if we can't find ways to protect other foods, will they survive climate change? Fortunately, there is some good news on this front. Despite alarmist headlines about "foods that are going extinct", there is no evidence that major food types like beans, chocolate, wine, corn or wheat will cease to exist.

但如果我们找不到保护其他食物的方法，它们能抵御气候变化吗？幸运的是，这方面有一些好消息。尽管有关于“即将灭绝的食物”的耸人听闻的标题，但没有证据表明豆类、巧克力、葡萄酒、玉米或小麦等主要食物类型将不复存在。

D) But that doesn't mean it's all good news for future food. We will probably have to change where we grow certain crops, as some regions get too hot. The disadvantage, obviously, is that local farmers will suffer under this situation. And some people may struggle to get the same access to certain foods. "Even if overall food production may be unaffected, food security can still be impacted," says Margaret Walsh, a scientist at the US Department of Agriculture's Climate Change Program Office. In other words, even if a certain food is still grown on some corner of the Earth, it doesn't mean that everyone will continue to have the same degree of access as today.

但这并不意味着未来的食物全是好消息。我们可能不得不改变种植某些作物的地点，因为一些地区变得太热。显然，劣势是当地农民在这种情况下会受苦。而且一些人可能难以获得同样的某些食物。“即使总体食物生产可能不受影响，粮食安全仍可能受到影响，”美国农业部气候变化项目办公室的科学家玛格丽特·沃尔什说。换句话说，即使某种食物仍在地球的某个角落种植，也不意味着每个人都能像今天一样继续获得同样的程度。

E) Overall, the yields of many foods, from staples to life-enhancing extras such as coffee and chocolate, will likely be impacted by climate change too. How those decreases will be felt will depend on the degree of warming and the crop in question, but in general, "anything over about 30℃ is very bad for crops," says Wolfram Schlenker, an associate professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University. For example, statistical studies that he and a colleague built of corn and soybean (大豆) production in the US show a steep decline after crossing the 30℃ temperature threshold (临界点).

总体而言，从主食到提升生活质量的附加品如咖啡和巧克力，许多食物的产量也可能受到气候变化的影响。这些减少的影响程度将取决于变暖程度和相关作物，但总的来说，“任何超过约30℃的温度对作物都非常不利，”哥伦比亚大学国际与公共事务副教授沃尔夫拉姆·施伦克说。例如，他和同事对美国玉米和大豆产量的统计研究表明，在超过30℃的温度阈值后，产量急剧下降。

F) In the US—the world's largest producer of corn and soybeans- farms can move north to some degree, Schlenker says. But eventually, yields will likely suffer because the soil north of Iowa declines in quality—a legacy of glacial (冰川的) expansion. Other studies, including studies of wheat in India and corn in Africa, also found that there is a threshold above which yields sharply decline: crops can adapt and move, but only to a point. "What's common to all studies is the finding that extreme heat is damaging to crop growth, although exact cutoffs vary by crop," Schlenker says. "If predictions for the end of the century are true, though, I think a lot of agricultural areas in the US will see significant hits."

施伦克说，在美国——世界上最大的玉米和大豆生产国——农场可以在一定程度上向北移动。但最终，产量可能会受到影响，因为爱荷华州以北的土壤质量下降——这是冰川扩张的遗留问题。其他研究，包括对印度小麦和非洲玉米的研究，也发现存在一个阈值，超过该阈值产量急剧下降：作物可以适应和移动，但只能到一定程度。“所有研究的共同点是发现极端热对作物生长有害，尽管具体截止点因作物而异，”施伦克说。“然而，如果对本世纪末的预测是真实的，我认为美国许多农业地区将受到重大打击。”

G) Under current conditions, about 4% of the world's croplands experience drought in any given year, but by the end of the century those conditions are forecasted to jump to about 18% per year. Some studies indicate that horticulture crops- generally, everything besides staples- may be impacted most severely, largely because they tend to be confined to a smaller geographic area. Researcher Andrew Jarvis and his colleagues found that 80% of coffee-growing zones in Central America and Brazil could become unsuitable by 2050, for example, while climate change will likely have "great impacts" on cocoa (可可粉) production in West Africa. "High quality chocolate will be less available in the future, and if you want it, you'll have to pay a lot more for it," Jarvis says.

在目前条件下，任何一年约有4%的世界农田经历干旱，但到本世纪末，预计这些条件将激增至每年约18%。一些研究表明，园艺作物——通常指主食以外的所有作物——可能受到最严重的影响，主要是因为它们往往局限于较小的地理区域。研究员安德鲁·贾维斯和他的同事发现，例如，中美洲和巴西80%的咖啡种植区可能在2050年前变得不适宜，而气候变化可能会对西非的可可粉生产产生“重大影响”。贾维斯说：“未来高品质巧克力将不那么容易获得，如果你想要它，你将不得不支付更多费用。”

H) This means that, for those who can afford it, some foods will simply cost them more in the future. But for poorer people, those same price jumps will likely cause certain foods to go extinct from their diets. "The more you reduce, the shorter the supply, and the higher the price will jump," Schlenker says.

这意味着，对于那些负担得起的人来说，一些食物在未来只会花费更多。但对于较贫穷的人来说，同样的价格上涨可能会导致某些食物从他们的饮食中消失。施伦克说：“你减少得越多，供应越短缺，价格跳得越高。”

I) Another potential climate change-induced problem is our dependence on commodity crops—wheat, soybeans, corn and rice—which currently provide humanity with 75% of its calories, either directly or indirectly through the animals we raise on those crops. Jarvis and his colleagues also found that, over the past five decades, the world has seen an increasing standardisation of diets; the foods we eat globally today are 36% more similar than they were in 1961. While this can be good news for the world's poorest people who now consume more calories, protein and fat than in the past, homogeneity (同一性) and over-dependence on a handful of staples leaves us vulnerable to threats such as drought, disease and pests- all of which are predicted to worsen in many parts of the world as a result of climate change.

另一个潜在的由气候变化引起的问题是我们对商品作物的依赖——小麦、大豆、玉米和大米——这些作物目前直接或间接通过我们饲养的动物提供人类75%的热量。贾维斯和他的同事还发现，在过去五十年中，世界饮食标准化程度增加；今天全球我们吃的食物比1961年相似了36%。虽然这对世界上最贫穷的人来说可能是好消息，因为他们现在消耗的热量、蛋白质和脂肪比过去多，但同一性和对少数主食的过度依赖使我们容易受到干旱、疾病和害虫等威胁的影响——所有这些威胁都因气候变化而预测在世界许多地区会加剧。

J) There are ways we could soften the coming blow to the global food supply, however. Like Farrant's work with resurrection crops, a number of companies, organisations and researchers are aiming to create drought-and temperature-resistant crops through genetic engineering and conventional breeding. For now, the jury is still out as to how successful those endeavours will be. "The people at Monsanto who I've talked to are much more optimistic that they'll be able to engineer heat-tolerant crops," Schlenker says. "On the other hand, scientists at the USDA who I've spoken with are much more cautious."

然而，我们有办法减轻即将到来的对全球粮食供应的打击。像法兰特在复活作物上的工作一样，许多公司、组织和研究人员正致力于通过基因工程和传统育种创造抗旱和耐热作物。目前，这些努力能否成功尚无定论。“我交谈过的孟山都公司的人对他们能够工程化耐热作物更加乐观，”施伦克说。“另一方面，我交谈过的美国农业部的科学家则更加谨慎。”

K) Until genetic engineering comes to fruition, other strategies might also help in some places, including applying more fertiliser, implementing better irrigation, using machinery that gets crops out of the field faster or installing storage facilities to delay spoilage. "Many places could benefit a great deal just by using technologies that already exist," Walsh says. "General farm management can go a long way toward easing changes."

在基因工程取得成果之前，其他策略在一些地方也可能有所帮助，包括施用更多肥料、实施更好的灌溉、使用更快地将作物运出田间的机械或安装储存设施以延迟变质。沃尔什说：“许多地方仅仅通过使用已经存在的技术就能受益匪浅。”“普通的农场管理在缓解变化方面可以大有作为。”

L) Finally, diversifying our diet away from heat-sensitive wheat, corn, rice and other crops could also help. "We've seen profound changes in the last decades in what we eat largely as a result of international trade, and I think that trend toward more diversification will continue," Jarvis says. "Depending on a greater number of plant species creates a more vigorous and less risky food system- and one that provides a broader range of nutritional requirements."

最后，使我们的饮食多样化，远离对热敏感的作物如小麦、玉米、大米和其他作物，也可能有所帮助。贾维斯说：“在过去几十年中，我们看到我们的饮食发生了深刻变化，这主要是由于国际贸易的结果，我认为这种向更多多样化的趋势将继续下去。”“依赖更多的植物物种创造了一个更强大、风险更小的粮食系统——并提供更广泛的营养需求。”