2016年12月四级第1套仔细阅读 Passage 2 原文翻译及答案解析

In the past, falling oil prices have given a boost to the world economy, but recent forecasts for global growth have been toned down, even as oil prices sink lower and lower. Does that mean the link between lower oil prices and growth has weakened?

过去，油价下跌曾推动全球经济增长，但尽管油价不断下跌，近期全球增长的预期已被下调。这是否意味着油价下跌与经济增长之间的联系已经减弱？

Some experts say there are still good reasons to believe cheap oil should heat up the world economy. Consumers have more money in their pockets when they're paying less at the pump. They spend that money on other things, which stimulates the economy.

一些专家认为，仍有充分理由相信廉价石油应能刺激世界经济。消费者在加油站支付更少的钱时，口袋里就有更多的钱。他们把这些钱花在其他事情上，从而刺激经济。

The biggest gains go to countries that import most of their oil like China, Japan, and India. But doesn't the extra money in the pockets of those countries' consumers mean an equal loss in oil-producing countries, cancelling out the gains? Not necessarily, says economic researcher Sara Johnson. "Many oil producers built up huge reserve funds when prices were high, so when prices fall they will draw on their reserves to support government spending and subsidies (补贴) for their consumers."

最大的收益归那些石油进口大国，如中国、日本和印度。但这些国家消费者口袋里的额外资金，是否意味着产油国的等量损失，从而抵消了收益？经济研究员萨拉·约翰逊表示，不一定。"许多产油国在油价高企时积累了巨额储备基金，因此当油价下跌时，他们会动用储备来支持政府支出和消费者补贴。"

But not all oil producers have big reserves. In Venezuela, collapsing oil prices have sent its economy into free-fall.

但并非所有产油国都拥有巨额储备。在委内瑞拉，油价暴跌已使其经济陷入自由落体式下滑。

Economist Carl Weinberg believes the negative effects of plunging oil prices are overwhelming the positive effects of cheaper oil. The implication is a sharp decline in global trade, which has plunged partly because oil- producing nations can't afford to import as much as they used to.

经济学家卡尔·温伯格认为，油价暴跌的负面影响压倒了廉价石油的积极影响。这意味着全球贸易急剧下降，部分原因是产油国无法像过去那样进口那么多商品。

Sara Johnson acknowledges that the global economic benefit from a fall in oil prices today is likely lower than it was in the past. One reason is that more countries are big oil producers now, so the nations suffering from the price drop account for a larger share of the global economy.

萨拉·约翰逊承认，如今油价下跌对全球经济的益处可能低于过去。一个原因是，现在更多的国家是产油大国，因此受油价下跌影响的国家在全球经济中所占份额更大。

Consumers, in the U.S. at least, are acting cautiously with the savings they're getting at the gas pump, as the memory of the recent great recession is still fresh in their mind. And a number of oil-producing countries are trimming their gasoline subsidies and raising taxes, so the net savings for global consumers is not as big as the oil price plunge might suggest.

至少在美国，消费者对在加油站获得的节省资金持谨慎态度，因为最近大衰退的记忆仍历历在目。而且，一些产油国正在削减汽油补贴并提高税收，因此全球消费者的净节省并不像油价暴跌所暗示的那么大。