2019年06月四级第1套长篇阅读匹配原文翻译及答案

A) Today in the United States there are 72,000 centenarians (百岁老人). Worldwide, probably 450,000. If current trends continue, then by 2050 there will be more than a million in the US alone. According to the work of Professor James Vaupel and his co-researchers, 50% of babies born in the US in 2007 have a life expectancy of 104 or more. Broadly the same holds for the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Canada, and for Japan 50% of 2007 babies can expect to live to 107.

今天，美国有72,000名百岁老人。全球可能有450,000名。如果当前趋势持续下去，到2050年，仅美国就会有超过一百万。根据詹姆斯·沃佩尔教授及其合作研究人员的工作，2007年在美国出生的婴儿中，50%的预期寿命为104岁或以上。大致相同的情况也适用于英国、德国、法国、意大利和加拿大，而在日本，2007年出生的婴儿中，50%有望活到107岁。

B) Understandably, there are concerns about what this means for public finances given the associated health and pension challenges. These challenges are real, and society urgently needs to address them. But it is also important to look at the wider picture of what happens when so many people live for 100 years. It is a mistake to simply equate longevity (长寿) with issues of old age. Longer lives have implications for all of life, not just the end of it.

可以理解，考虑到相关的健康和养老金挑战，人们担心这对公共财政意味着什么。这些挑战是真实的，社会迫切需要解决它们。但同样重要的是，要看到当如此多人活到100岁时会发生什么。将长寿简单地等同于老年问题是错误的。更长的生命对整个人生都有影响，而不仅仅是晚年。

C) Our view is that if many people are living for longer, and are healthier for longer, then this will result in an inevitable redesign of work and life. When people live longer, they are not only older for longer, but also younger for longer. There is some truth in the saying that "70 is the new 60" or "40 the new 30." If you age more slowly over a longer time period, then you are in some sense younger for longer.

我们的观点是，如果许多人活得更久，并且更长时间保持健康，那么这将不可避免地导致工作和生活的重新设计。当人们活得更久时，他们不仅更长时间地变老，也更长时间地保持年轻。俗语说“70是新的60”或“40是新的30”有一定道理。如果你在更长的时间段内衰老得更慢，那么在某种意义上，你更长时间地保持年轻。

D) But the changes go further than that. Take, for instance, the age at which people make commitments such as buying a house, getting married, having children, or starting a career. These are all fundamental commitments that are now occurring later in life. In 1962, 50% of Americans were married by age 21. By 2014, that milestone (里程碑) had shifted to age 29.

但变化不止于此。例如，人们做出承诺的年龄，如买房、结婚、生子或开始职业生涯。这些都是现在发生在生命后期的基本承诺。1962年，50%的美国人在21岁前结婚。到2014年，这个里程碑已转移到29岁。

E) While there are numerous factors behind these shifts, one factor is surely a growing realization for the young that they are going to live longer. Options are more valuable the longer they can be held. So if you believe you will live longer, then options become more valuable, and early commitment becomes less attractive. The result is that the commitments that previously characterized the beginning of adulthood are now being delayed, and new patterns of behavior and a new stage of life are emerging for those in their twenties.

虽然这些转变背后有众多因素，但一个因素肯定是年轻人越来越意识到他们将活得更久。选择持有时间越长，其价值就越高。因此，如果你相信你会活得更久，那么选择就更有价值，早期承诺就变得不那么吸引人。结果是，以前标志成年初的承诺现在被推迟了，新的行为模式和一个新的生活阶段正在为二十多岁的人出现。

F) Longevity also pushes back the age of retirement, and not only for financial reasons. Yes, unless people are prepared to save a lot more, our calculations suggest that if you are now in your mid-40s, then you are likely to work until your early 70s; and if you are in your early 20s, there is a real chance you will need to work until your late 70s or possibly even into your 80s. But even if people are able to economically support a retirement at 65, over thirty years of potential inactivity is harmful to cognitive(认知的) and emotional vitality. Many people may simply not want to do it.

长寿也推迟了退休年龄，而且不仅仅是出于财务原因。是的，除非人们准备储蓄更多，我们的计算表明，如果你现在40多岁，那么你很可能要工作到70出头；如果你20出头，有一个真实的机会你需要工作到70多岁，甚至可能进入80多岁。但即使人们能够在经济上支持65岁退休，超过三十年的潜在不活动对认知和情感活力有害。许多人可能根本不想这样做。

G) And yet that does not mean that simply extending our careers is appealing. Just lengthening that second stage of full-time work may secure the financial assets needed for a 100-year life, but such persistent work will inevitably exhaust precious intangible assets such as productive skills, vitality, happiness, and friendship.

然而，这并不意味着简单地延长职业生涯是吸引人的。仅仅延长全职工作的第二阶段可能确保100年生活所需的财务资产，但这种持续的工作将不可避免地耗尽宝贵的无形资产，如生产技能、活力、幸福和友谊。

H) The same is true for education. It is impossible that a single shot of education, administered in childhood and early adulthood, will be able to support a sustained, 60-year career. If you factor in the projected rates of technological change, either your skills will become unnecessary, or your industry outdated. That means that everyone will, at some point in their life, have to make a number of major reinvestments in their skills.

教育也是如此。不可能一次性的教育，即在童年和成年早期提供的教育，能够支持一个持续的、60年的职业生涯。如果你考虑预计的技术变革率，要么你的技能变得不必要，要么你的行业过时。这意味着每个人在生命中的某个时刻，都必须对他们的技能进行一些重大再投资。

I) It seems likely, then, that the traditional three-stage life will evolve into multiple stages containing two, three, or even more different careers. Each of these stages could potentially be different. In one the focus could be on building financial success and personal achievement, in another on creating a better work/life balance, still another on exploring and understanding options more fully, or becoming an independent producer, yet another on making a social contribution. These stages will span sectors, take people to different cities, and provide foundation for building a wide variety of skills.

那么，似乎传统的三阶段生活可能会演变成包含两个、三个或更多不同职业生涯的多个阶段。这些阶段中的每一个都可能不同。一个阶段可能专注于建立财务成功和个人成就，另一个专注于创造更好的工作/生活平衡，还有一个更全面地探索和理解选择，或成为独立生产者，再一个专注于做出社会贡献。这些阶段将跨越行业，带人们到不同的城市，并为建立各种技能提供基础。

J) Transitions between stages could be marked with sabbaticals (休假) as people find time rest and recharge their health, re-invest in their relationships, or improve their skills. At times, these breaks and transitions will be self-determined, at others they will be forced as existing roles, firms, or industries cease to exist.

阶段之间的过渡可以用休假来标记，因为人们找到时间休息和恢复健康，重新投资于他们的关系，或提高他们的技能。有时，这些休息和过渡将是自我决定的，有时它们将是被迫的，因为现有角色、公司或行业不复存在。

K) A multi-stage life will have profound changes not just in how you manage your career, but also in your approach to life. An increasingly important skill will be your ability to deal with change and even welcome it. A three-stage life has few transitions, while a multi-stage life has many. That is why being self-aware, investing in broader networks of friends, and being open to new ideas will become even more crucial skills.

多阶段生活不仅会深刻改变你管理职业的方式，还会改变你的生活态度。一个越来越重要的技能将是你处理变化甚至欢迎变化的能力。三阶段生活很少有过渡，而多阶段生活有很多。这就是为什么自我意识、投资于更广泛的朋友网络以及对新想法持开放态度将成为更重要的技能。

L) These multi-stage lives will create extraordinary variety across groups of people simply because there are so many ways of sequencing the stages. More stages mean more possible sequences.

这些多阶段生活将在人群中创造非凡的多样性，仅仅是因为有如此多的方式来排序这些阶段。更多的阶段意味着更多的可能序列。

M) With this variety will come the end of the close association of age and stage. In a three-stage life, people leave university at the same time and the same age, they tend to start their careers and family at the same age, they proceed through middle management all roughly the same time, and then move into retirement within a few years of each other. In a multi-stage life, you could be an undergraduate at 20, 40, or 60; a manager at 30, 50, or 70; and become an independent producer at any age.

随着这种多样性的出现，年龄和阶段之间的紧密联系将结束。在三阶段生活中，人们同时且同龄离开大学，他们倾向于同龄开始职业生涯和家庭，他们大致同时通过中层管理，然后在几年内相继退休。在多阶段生活中，你可以在20岁、40岁或60岁成为本科生；在30岁、50岁或70岁成为经理；并且在任何年龄成为独立生产者。

N) Current life structures, career paths, educational choices, and social norms are out of tune with the emerging reality of longer lifespans. The three-stage life of full-time education, followed by continuous work, and then complete retirement may have worked for our parents or even grandparents, but it is not relevant today. We believe that to focus on longevity as primarily an issue of aging is to miss its full implications. Longevity is not necessarily about being older for longer. It is about living longer, being older later, and being younger longer.

当前的生活结构、职业路径、教育选择和社会规范与寿命延长的新兴现实不协调。全日制教育，然后是连续工作，最后完全退休的三阶段生活可能对我们的父母甚至祖父母有效，但今天已不适用。我们认为，将长寿主要视为老龄化问题会错过其全部含义。长寿不一定意味着更长时间地变老。它是关于活得更久、更晚变老和更长时间保持年轻。